Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.

In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.

If you’re wondering how the current economy is impacting our local market, let’s connect.

It’s not really a surprise that 70% of buyers paused their home search last year. Maybe you were one of them. And if so, no judgment. Conditions just weren’t great.

Inventory was too low, prices were too high, and mortgage rates were bouncing all over. That made it really hard to find a home you loved – and could afford. And why sell if you’re not sure where you’re going to go?

But here’s the thing: the market’s shifting. And it might be time to hit play again.

The Inventory Sweet Spot

More homeowners are jumping back into their search to make a move this year. Builders are finishing more homes. And together, that’s creating more options for you when you move – maybe even the home you’ve been waiting for.

More homes = more possibilities.

But there’s more to it than that. When you sell, you don’t want to feel like it’s impossible to find your next home. At the same time, you also don’t want inventory to be so high, it takes ages for your house to sell. Right now, you’ll get the best of both worlds.

This data will help paint the picture for you. According to Realtor.com, inventory has jumped 28.5% since this time last year, but it’s still below pre-pandemic levels in most markets – and here’s why this is such a sweet spot (see graph below):

Basically, there are more homes to choose from when you make your move, but not so many that you’ll struggle to sell your current house. Your home should sell quickly if you work with an agent to make sure it’s priced right and prepped to impress.

More options. Less chaos. Solid demand: That’s the real sweet spot.

But here’s something else to consider. Data from Realtor.com also shows inventory has been on the rise for 17 straight months. And experts agree it’s likely to continue climbing throughout the year. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub explains:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.​”

So, this may actually be the best time to sell. Your house may stand out more now than it would as the year goes on and inventory grows even more. Wait too long, and you may be one of many trying to stand out later this year.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for the housing market to give you a sign – it just did. Whether you’re looking to move up, scale down, or relocate completely, this might be the best balance we’ve seen in a while.

What’s holding you back from taking advantage of this sweet spot? Let’s talk through it and see what’s possible.

At some point, you’ve probably heard the saying: “Yesterday was the best time to buy a home, but the next best time is today.”

That’s because homeownership is about the long game – and home prices typically rise over time. So, while you may be holding out for prices to fall or rates to improve, you should know that trying to time the market rarely works.

Here’s what most buyers don’t always think about: the longer you wait, the more buying could cost you. And you deserve to understand why.

Forecasts Say Prices Will Keep Climbing

Each quarter, over 100 housing market experts weigh in for the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae, and they consistently agree on one thing: nationally, home prices are expected to rise through at least 2029.

Yes, the sharp price increases are behind us, but experts project a steady, healthy, and sustainable increase of 3-4% per year going forward. And while this will vary by local market from year to year, the good news is, this is a much more normal pace – a welcome sign for the housing market and hopeful buyers (see graph below):

And even in markets experiencing more modest price growth or slight short-term declines, the long game of homeownership wins over time.

So, here’s what to keep in mind:

• Next year’s home prices will be higher than this year’s. The longer you wait, the more the purchase price will go up.
• Waiting for the perfect mortgage rate or a price drop may backfire. Even if rates dip slightly, projected home price growth could still make waiting more expensive overall.
• Buying now means building equity sooner. When you play the long game of homeownership, your equity rewards you over time.

What You’ll Miss Out On

Let’s put real numbers into this equation, because it adds up quickly. Based on those expert projections, if you bought a typical $400,000 home in 2025, it could gain nearly $80,000 in value by 2030 (see graph below):

That’s a serious boost to your future wealth – and why your friends and family who already bought a home are so glad they did. Time in the market matters.

So, the question isn’t: should I wait? It’s really: can I afford to buy now? Because if you can stretch a little or you’re willing to buy something a bit smaller just to get your foot in the door, this is why it’ll be worth it.

Yes, today’s housing market has challenges, but there are ways to make it work, like exploring different neighborhoods, asking your lender about alternative financing, or tapping into down payment assistance programs.

The key is making a move when it makes sense for you, rather than waiting for a perfect scenario that may never arrive.

Bottom Line

Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market.

If you’re debating whether to buy now or wait, remember this: real estate rewards those who get in the market, not those who try to time it perfectly.

Want to take a look at what’s happening with prices in our local area? Whether you’re ready to buy now or just exploring your options, having a plan in place can set you up for long-term success.

According to Realtor.com, the best week to list your house this year was April 13–19. And since that week has come and gone, you might be wondering: did I miss my chance? Not at all – and here’s why.

That’s just one source’s take, based on their own research. Other organizations run similar studies. And since different places use different methodologies for their research, sometimes the results vary too – and that’s actually good news for you. According to Zillow, the best time to list your house is still ahead.

The latest research from Zillow says sellers who list their homes in late May tend to see higher sale prices based on home sales from last year. The study explains why:

“Search activity typically peaks before Memorial Day, as shoppers get serious about house hunting before their summer vacation and the new school year in the fall. By targeting late spring, sellers can get their home listed when the most shoppers are looking. When more buyers are competing for homes, sellers can command a higher price.”

And they’re not the only ones saying selling in May can help homeowners net top dollar. ATTOM Data conducted a similar study by analyzing 59 million home sales over the past 13 years:

“Freshly compiled sales statistics from ATTOM demonstrate that home sellers continue to reap significant benefits from listing their properties during the month of May. Examination of home sales trends spanning thirteen years reveals that, on average, sellers are commanding 11.1 percent premium above the estimated market value.”

An article from Bankrate echoes this sentiment and brings this all together to show that any time in April or May is a good time:

“Some patterns and trends usually do hold true throughout the year, and one is that spring continues to be the best time to sell. Sellers can net thousands of dollars more if they sell during the peak months of April and May. . .”

The window to sell during prime time is very much still open, so you can make a move and potentially cash in big if you sell now.

That said, the best week to list your house really depends on a few local factors, like buyer demand, how many homes are for sale nearby, and how quickly things are selling. That’s why working with an experienced agent who knows your area is key.

Bottom Line

Spring is the busiest time in real estate – and there’s still time to take full advantage of that momentum.

What’s holding you back from making your move this spring? And what would help you feel ready? Let’s talk about it.

If buying a home is on your radar – even if it’s more of a someday plan than a right now plan – getting pre-approved early is still one of the smartest moves you can make. Why? Because, like anything in life, the right prep work makes things clearer.

The best time to get serious about buying is before you’re ready to buy. Here’s why.

Pre-Approval Helps You Understand Your Numbers

One of the biggest benefits of pre-approval is how it helps you understand your buying power. As part of the pre-approval process, a lender will walk through your finances and tell you what you can borrow based on your income, debts, credit score, and more. That number is power.

Once you have that clarity, you’re no longer guessing. You know what you’re working with. And that gives you the information you need to be able to plan ahead. That way, you’re not falling in love with homes that are outside of your price range – or missing out on ones that aren’t.

Pre-Approval Helps You Move Quickly When You’re Ready

You don’t have to be ready to buy to be ready to buy.

It happens all the time – someone scrolls through listings just for fun, and then BAM – they fall in love with something they see online. But by the time they scramble to connect with an agent and then get pre-approved with a lender, someone else beats them to it, and they lose the home. And you don’t want that to happen to you.

While you can’t control when the right home shows up – you can be ready for it.

Pre-approval isn’t about jumping the gun or rushing your timeline. It’s about making sure you’re ready when it’s go-time. As Experian explains:

“Waiting too long to get a preapproval, however, could leave you at a disadvantage . . . you could find the perfect home, but another buyer could snatch it up while you’re waiting for the lender to review your preapproval application. . . getting a preapproval just before you begin actively looking at homes may be your best option.”

Instead of rushing to figure out your numbers, trying to get documentation for your home loan together, and watching the house you love slip away while you wait to hear from your lender, you’re already in the game.

It’s like showing up to the starting line with your shoes tied and your warm-up done – while everyone else is still looking for parking.

But pre-approvals do have an expiration date, so be sure to ask your lender how long it’s good for. Bankrate offers this insight:

“Many mortgage preapprovals are valid for 90 days, though some lenders will only authorize a 30- or 60-day preapproval. If your preapproval expires, getting it renewed can be as simple as your lender rechecking your credit and finances to ensure there have been no major changes to your situation since the first time ‘round.”

The thing is, if you’ve been pre-approved – even if you’re just thinking about casually looking – you have a much better sense of how to navigate your home search within your budget. Plus, you’ll be ready if the perfect home comes along. So why not make it happen?

Bottom Line

Getting pre-approved doesn’t mean you have to buy a house today. But it does mean you’ll know what you’re working with when the right one shows up. If you want to get pre-approved, connect with a lender to get that process started.

In the meantime, let’s have a conversation about what’s on your mind and what you’re looking for.

If the perfect house popped up tomorrow, would you be ready to make a move?

You’ve been working on your savings and dreaming of that moment when you finally have keys to a place that’s truly yours. What you might not realize is that your tax return could give you a little extra cash to help you get there sooner. As Freddie Mac notes:

“ . . . your tax refund from the IRS can be a useful supplement to your homebuying budget.” 

So, if you’re getting a tax refund this year, you can use it to help you pay for some of the upfront costs that come with buying a home, like the down payment and closing costs. And here’s the best part.

On average, people are getting even more money back in their refunds than they did last year. While it’s not a big increase, the visual below uses data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to show the average individual’s refund is 3.9% higher this year:

Of course, how much money you may get in your tax refund is going to vary. But when it comes to buying a home, any extra cash can help move things forward. Here are a few examples of how you can put that money to good use, according to Freddie Mac:

• Save for a down payment – Saving for a down payment can be one of the biggest hurdles for buyers. Setting aside your tax refund for this expense could help you get to your goal faster. Just remember, it’s typically not required to put 20% down.
• Pay for closing costs – Closing costs include fees for things like the appraisal, title insurance, and underwriting of your loan. They’re generally between 2% and 5% of the total purchase price of the home. So, putting your refund toward these costs can make things more manageable on closing day.
• Lower your mortgage rate – Your lender might give you the option to buy down your mortgage rate. If you qualify for this option, you could pay up front to have a lower rate on your mortgage. If affordability is tight for you at today’s rates and home prices, this may be worth exploring.

But you don’t have to figure it all out on your own. Working with a team of trusted real estate professionals who understand the homebuying process, what you need to save, and any resources you can tap into will help you make sure you’re ready to buy when the time comes.

Bottom Line

When it comes to saving for a home, every dollar gets you one step closer to your goal. While your tax refund may not be enough to change the game, it can help give your homebuying fund a boost.

What would having your own home mean for you or your family this year? Let’s talk about it and we’ll come up with a strategy for success.