Buyers • Housing Market Updates • Sellers • November 12, 2025

Are Builders Overbuilding Again? Let’s Look at the Facts.

by Joe Spanish

If it feels like you’re seeing new construction signs pop up everywhere, you’re not wrong. Builders have been busy. And it’s left some people wondering: Are we overbuilding like we did right before the 2008 housing crash?

No matter what you may hear in the news, there’s no reason for alarm. In reality, data shows builders aren’t racing ahead, they’re actually starting to tap the brakes.

Builders Are Pulling Back, Not Piling On

Permits (applications to start building new homes) are one of the best early indicators for what’s next for home construction. And right now, building permits are trending down, not up. Here’s why that’s so important.

In the years before the housing crash of 2008, builders really ramped up their production of single-family homes (the red arrow in the graph below). And unfortunately, they built far more homes than the market actually needed. That oversupply led to falling home prices. That’s what so many people remember, and what they worry will happen again.

But while construction has been picking back up since roughly 2012, we’re not headed for a repeat of the same mistakes. The latest data available shows builders are actually starting construction on fewer homes right now (the green arrow in the graph below):

New data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) confirms that trend. It shows that single-family building permits have fallen for eight straight months.

The Slowdown Isn’t Random, It’s Intentional

Basically, builders are watching and reacting to today’s economic conditions and buyer demand in real time. And they’re pumping the brakes on their pipelines to avoid getting caught with too much unsold inventory. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says:

“. . . builders are still working through their backlog of inventory but are more cautious with new starts.”

That’s a big contrast to what happened before the housing crash, when overconfidence led to record-breaking levels of new home construction – even as demand was dropping. Today’s builders aren’t overconfident. They’re listening to the market and adjusting before things get out of balance.

The Regional Picture Tells the Same Story

And while inventory is going to vary a lot based on where you live, if you zoom out and look at regional data, the pattern holds almost everywhere (see graph below):

NAHB reports single-family permits are down in nearly every part of the country, with just one region showing a slight uptick. And even there, the growth is so small, it’s practically flat.

Why This Isn’t 2008 All Over Again

In the lead up to the crash, builders kept building long after demand had disappeared. This time, they’re slowing down early, and that’s a good thing.

The market actually needs more homes after years of underbuilding. But builders are making sure they don’t have to overcorrect. They’re being intentional about how many homes they’re building right now.

So yes, you’re seeing more new homes for sale today, but that doesn’t mean we’re oversupplied nationally. It means buyers finally have more options, and builders are pacing themselves to keep things in check. They’re not going to flood the market. And that’s a really good thing for housing overall.

Bottom Line

Seeing more new homes for sale doesn’t mean builders are overdoing it. Since building permits have been declining for eight straight months, it’s clear this isn’t an out-of-control boom. It’s a measured recovery.

If you want to know more about what builders are doing in our area, let’s connect.

Buyers • November 11, 2025

The VA Home Loan Advantage: What Every Veteran Should Know Right Now

by Joe Spanish

If you’ve served in the military (or if your spouse has), you have access to one of the most powerful homebuying tools out there. The chance to buy a home without having a down payment.

Unfortunately, 70% of Veterans (that’s 7 out of every 10) don’t know about this benefit, according to Veterans United.

And that’s a big missed opportunity for those who’ve earned this benefit through service. So, let’s break down what you really need to know about Veterans Affairs (VA) home loans right now.

Why VA Home Loans Can Be a Great Option

For nearly 80 years, VA loans have made homeownership possible for millions of Veterans and active-duty service members. Here are just a few of the top perks according to the Department of Veteran Affairs:

Options for $0 Down Payment: Many Veterans can buy a home without spending years saving up.
Fewer Upfront Costs: The VA limits which types of closing costs Veterans have to pay, helping you keep more cash on hand when you’re finalizing your purchase.
No Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI): Unlike many other loan types, VA loans don’t require PMI, lowering your monthly costs.

These features make VA loans a great way for service members (or their family) to build stability, save money, and start creating long-term wealth through homeownership.

Can You Still Get a VA Loan with the Government Shutdown?

But lately, there’s been some confusion about whether VA loans are still available due to the government shutdown. And that uncertainty has kept some Veterans from taking the next step.

While there may be processing delays, Veterans United explains you can still get a loan:

“There’s been a lot of confusion and uncertainty about how a government shutdown will affect VA home loans . . . The good news is that the shutdown has minimal impacts on VA lending. Lenders are still able to order appraisals, obtain a borrower’s Certificate of Eligibility, submit the VA Funding Fee and more. In short, Veterans are still able to use their home loan benefit to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage.”

So, despite the headlines, you can still use your VA home loan benefits today. The process is ready when you are. It just may take more time to go through.

Why the Right Agent and Lender Matter

Just remember, using your VA home loan is easier (and smoother) when you have the right team behind you. As VA News puts it:

“Choosing a military-friendly broker or agent who understands the VA home loan application process can make all the difference in the homebuying experience. Finding the right agency or brokerage is just as important as locking in a good VA mortgage lender. Communication is key to getting to the loan closing table.”

A knowledgeable agent and an experienced lender can help you navigate every step, all the way from qualifying to closing. With their help, you can make sure you’re getting the most out of your benefits.

Bottom Line

If you’re a Veteran, a VA home loan is one of the most valuable benefits you’ve earned through your service. It offers options for no down payment, limited closing costs, and more.

Want to learn more? Talk to a lender so you can take full advantage of the benefits you’ve earned.

Sellers • November 5, 2025

How To Make Sure Your Sale Crosses the Finish Line

by Joe Spanish

If there was one simple step that could help make your home sale a seamless process, wouldn’t you want to know about it?

There’s a lot that happens from the time your house goes under contract to closing day. And a few things still have to go right for the deal to go through. But here’s what a lot of sellers may not know.

There’s one part of the process where some homeowners are hitting a road bump that’s causing buyers to back out these days. But don’t worry. The majority of these snags are completely avoidable, especially when you understand what’s causing them and how to be proactive.

That’s where a great agent (and a little prep) can make all the difference.

What’s Causing Some Buyers To Back Out

The latest data from Redfin says 15% of pending home sales are falling through. And that’s not wildly higher than the 12% norm from 2017-2019. But it is an increase.

That means roughly 1 in 7 deals today don’t make it to the closing table. But, at the same time, 6 out of 7 do. So, the majority of sellers never face this problem – and odds are, you won’t either. But you can help make it even less likely if you know how to get ahead.

You might assume the main reason buyers are backing out today is financing. But that’s actually not the case. The most common deal breaker today, by far, is inspection and repair issues (see graph below):

Here’s why that’s a sticking point for buyers right now:

Buyers are already stretched thin from high prices and challenging mortgage rates, so they don’t have the appetite (or budget) for unexpected repairs.
If they’re going to spend all that money, they want to get something that’s move-in ready. They don’t want to take on another high-cost project themselves.
They have more homes to choose from, so if yours seems like a hassle or if you’re not willing to fix something, they can just move on.

The sellers with the best agents have heard about this shift and they’re doing what they can to go in prepared. Enter the pre-listing inspection.

What’s a Pre-Listing Inspection?

It’s exactly what it sounds like. It’s a professional home inspection you schedule before your home hits the market. And while it’s not required, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains why it could be a valuable step for some sellers right now:

“To keep deals from unraveling . . . it allows a seller the opportunity to address any repairs before the For Sale sign even goes up. It also can help avoid surprises like a costly plumbing problem, a failing roof or an outdated electrical panel that could cause financially stretched buyers to bolt before closing.”

Think of it as a way to avoid future headaches. You’ll know what issues could pop up during the buyer’s inspection – and you’ll have time to fix them or decide what to disclose before you put your house on the market.

This way, when the buyer’s inspector walks in, you’re ready. No surprises. No last-minute panic. No deal on the line.

Is It Worth It?

Generally speaking, a pre-listing inspection costs just a few hundred dollars. So, it’s not a big expense. And the information it gives you is invaluable. But before you make that investment, talk to your local agent.

In some markets, it may not be worth it. And in others, it may be the best move you can make. It all depends on what’s happening where you are and what’s working for other local sellers. If your agent recommends getting one, they’ll also:

Help you decide which issues to fix
Prioritize repairs based on what buyers in your area are focusing on
Connect you with trusted professionals to get the work done
Ensure you understand local disclosure laws

That small step could save your deal (and your timeline).

Bottom Line

So, if there was one simple step that could help make your home sale go according to plan, would you do it?

If you’d rather deal with surprises on your terms (not with the clock ticking under contract), let’s talk about whether a pre-listing inspection makes sense for your house.

It may be worth it so you can hit the market confident, prepared, and in control.

Buyers • November 3, 2025

Thought the Market Passed You By? Think Again.

by Joe Spanish

If you stepped back from your home search over the past few years, you’re not alone – and you’re definitely not out of options. In fact, now might be the ideal time to take another look. With more homes to choose from, prices leveling off in many areas, and mortgage rates easing, today’s market is offering something you haven’t had in a while: options.

Experts agree, buyers are in a better spot right now than they’ve been in quite a long time. Here’s what they have to say.

Affordability Is Finally Improving

Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says affordability is finally starting to turn the corner:

“Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.”

Mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs, price growth has slowed, and that one-two combo is making homes more affordable than they’ve been in months.

There Are More Homes on The Market

And a big reason prices are easing is because there are more homes on the market. According to the latest from Realtor.com, there are 17% more homes for sale today than there were at this time last year. That means more options, less competition with other buyers, and a chance to find the space that actually works for you.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shares:

“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”

Take a look at the numbers.

As Yun notes, inventory is up everywhere. Compared to this time last year, every region of the country has more homes on the market than at this time last year (see graph below):

That translates to more homes to choose from, whether you’re looking for a bigger backyard, a shorter commute, or finally ditching your rental.

But not all markets are the same…

When you compare current inventory growth to pre-pandemic norms (2017–2019), the picture changes a bit, depending on where you are (see graph below):

The green bars show where inventory has fully recovered (and even grown above pre-pandemic levels) in the South and the West. Supply, however, is still tighter in the Northeast and Midwest, as shown in the red bars, where inventory is still below normal.

And here’s why that’s still a win everywhere.

When you step back and look at the bigger picture, with inventory up in every region, that means more choices everywhere, even if some areas have more homes for sale than others.

And with fewer buyers in the market and more homes for sale, sellers are willing to negotiate to get a deal done.

All of that adds up to a win for today’s buyers.

And it’s also why working with a local expert really makes a difference. What’s happening in your zip code or neighborhood might look different than the national or regional trend. But the overall takeaway is clear: with more homes on the market, buyers have more leverage than they did a year or more ago.

So, if you stepped away from your search because things felt too competitive, too pricey, you were worried about finding a home, or it was all just too much to process, this could be your moment to take another look.

And if you’re not quite ready to go all in, that’s okay too. You can start by planning ahead. That means working with a trusted agent who can help you break down your budget, narrow your search, and make sure you’re prepped and ready when the right home hits the market.

Bottom Line

Want to know what’s happening in our area? Let’s have a conversation so you can get a custom overview of what’s available right now and learn how to be ready when the timing is right for you.

Because this isn’t 2021.

This isn’t even 2023 or 2024.

This is a new market – and you might be surprised by what you find.

Buyers • Mortgage Updates • Sellers • October 30, 2025

Why You Don’t Need To Be Afraid of Today’s Mortgage Rates

by Joe Spanish

Mortgage rates have been the monster under the bed for a while. Every time they tick up, people flinch and say, “Maybe I’ll wait.” But here’s the twist. Waiting for that perfect 5-point-something rate could end up haunting your wallet later.

The Magic Number

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“. . . a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households—including 1.6 million renters. If rates were to hit that magic number, it’s likely that about 10%—or 550,000—of those additional households would buy a home over the next 12 or 18 months.”

When the market hits that mortgage rate sweet spot, as expert forecasters are starting to say is more likely in 2026, the psychological shift to lower rates will kick in for more of today’s hopeful buyers. That will unleash some pent-up demand that’s been waiting on the sidelines, and the increase in activity will cause prices to rise.

And while a 5.99% rate might sound like a big win, if you’re waiting for that number to make your move, it might not actually save you as much as you think. Here’s how the math looks when you run the numbers (see chart below):

On a $400,000 mortgage, the difference between today’s rate (around 6.2%) and 5.99% is roughly $50 a month. That’s less than many people spend on weekly coffee runs or occasional DoorDash orders. And as prices tick up with more buyers in the market, that could quickly negate any of your potential savings.

So, if you’re waiting for 5.99%, that difference might not be worth missing out on today’s opportunities, like having more homes to choose from, better negotiation leverage with today’s sellers, and fewer buyers out there looking for the same houses.

Because the reality is, those benefits start to slip away when more buyers begin to make their moves – and a rate under 6% is exactly they’re waiting for.

Why Acting Now Makes Sense

Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at NAR, says:

“Over the last 5 weeks, mortgage rates have averaged 6.31%. This has provided savvy buyers a sweet spot to reexamine the home search process with more inventory, widening their choices.”

And like Matt Vernon, Head of Retail Lending at Bank of America, notes:

“Rather than waiting it out for a rate that they like better, hopeful homebuyers should assess their personal financial situation—if the house is right for them, and the upfront and monthly payments are affordable, it could be the right chance to make a move.”

Bottom Line

If moving at today’s rate scares you, remember, waiting doesn’t always pay off. Once rates dip below 6%, as some experts project they’ll do next year, more buyers (and higher prices) will be back.

So, don’t be afraid of today’s mortgage rates. Because if you’re ready, this might just be your chance to make your move before the market wakes up again.

Sellers • October 29, 2025

Why Some Homes Sell Quickly – and Others Don’t Sell at All

by Joe Spanish

A few years ago, inventory hit a record low. Just about anything sold – and fast. But now, there are far more homes on the market. Listings are up almost 20% from this time last year. And in some areas, supply is even back to levels we last saw in 2017–2019. For sellers, that means one thing:

Your house needs to stand out and grab attention from day one.

That’s especially true when you consider why the number of homes for sale is up. Here’s how it works. Available inventory is a mix of:

Active Listings: homes that have been sitting on the market, but haven’t sold yet
New Listings: homes that were just put on the market

Data from Realtor.com shows most of the inventory growth lately is actually from active listings that are staying on the market and taking longer to sell (see the graph below).

The blue bars show active listings. These are the homes that are sitting month to month and not selling. The green bars are new listings, the homes that were just put on the market. And it’s clear there are fewer new listings compared to how many are staying on the market unsold.

Since you don’t want your house to be one of the ones that take a long time to sell, let’s break down where things can go sideways and how to set yourself up to sell quickly.

Why Some Homes Sell and Others Sit

The secret to selling in today’s market is simple. Make sure your house is easy for buyers to say yes to as soon as it is listed.

Price it based on current conditions (not what your neighbor sold for 3 years ago). Make important repairs. And highlight the best things about your house. If you do that, it will sell in any market – sometimes even faster than you’d think. Because the truth is, homes that are priced right today are still selling.

It’s the homeowners who are clinging to outdated expectations that are seeing their house sit and their listing go stale. According to Redfin and HousingWire, here are some of the most common reasons sales stall out:

Priced it too high from the start
Skipped necessary repairs before listing
Didn’t stage the house well
Sellers won’t negotiate with buyers
Limited availability for showings
Ineffective marketing or listing pictures

Most of those things didn’t matter as much just a few years ago. When inventory was at a record low, sellers could skip the prep, name their price, and still walk away with multiple offers over their asking price.

But today’s market is different now that inventory has grown. And that means your approach needs to be different too.

You don’t want to try out old strategies and aim too high just to see what sticks. Your first few weeks on the market are everything. That’s when your listing gets the most attention – and when pricing or presentation mistakes hurt the most. Get it wrong up front and your house will sit…and sit. Get it right, and it’ll be snatched up before you know it.

The Right Agent Helps Your House Stand Out

Selling quickly isn’t about luck. It’s about knowing how to play to the market you’re in. And that’s where your agent comes in.

A great agent will analyze your local market, suggest a price based on the latest comparables sold in your neighborhood, and create a marketing plan that makes buyers pay attention from day one. They’ll also walk you through any repairs you need to make or whether you need to bring in a staging company. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Home sellers without an agent are nearly twice as likely to say they didn’t accept an offer for at least three months; 53% of sellers who used an agent say they accepted an offer within a month of listing their home.”

That’s the power of getting it right (and getting expert help) from the start.

Bottom Line

There are more homes for sale today than there were even just a year ago, but that doesn’t have to work against you.

When your house is priced right, shows well, and is marketed effectively, it will sell. Let’s connect if you want to know how to make that happen in our market this fall.

Buyers • October 27, 2025

The Reason Homes Feel Like They Cost So Much (It’s Not What You Think)

by Joe Spanish

Scroll through your feed and you’ll see plenty of finger-pointing about why homes cost so much. And according to a national survey, a lot of people believe big investors are to blame.

Even though data shows that’s not true, nearly half of Americans surveyed (48%) think investors are the top reason housing feels so expensive (see graph below):

But that theory doesn’t actually hold up once you look at the data.

The Truth About Investors

Investors do play a role in the housing market, especially in certain areas. But they’re not buying up all the homes like so many people on social media say.

Nationwide, Realtor.com found only 2.8% of all home purchases last year were made by big investors (who own more than 50 properties). That means roughly 97% of homes were bought and sold by regular people, not corporate giants. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Investors do own significant shares of the housing stock in some neighborhoods, but nationwide, the share of investor-owned housing is not a major concern.”

So, if it’s not investors, why are home prices so high?

What’s Really Behind Today’s Home Prices

The real story behind rising prices has less to do with who’s buying and more to do with what’s missing: enough homes. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), says:

“It’s been popular among some to blame investors, but with housing, the economics of that don’t make a lot of sense. The fundamental driver of housing costs is the shortage itself—it’s driven by the fact that there’s a mismatch between the number of households and the actual size of the housing stock.”

There simply haven’t been enough homes for sale to meet buyer demand. And that shortage, not investor activity, is what’s pushed prices higher just about everywhere.

Bottom Line

It’s easy to believe investors caused today’s housing challenges. But the truth is, the market just needs more homes, and that’s finally starting to happen.

As more options hit the market, buying may feel a little more realistic again.

Let’s connect and talk about what’s happening in our local market.

Sellers • October 22, 2025

Planning To Sell in 2026? Start the Prep Now

by Joe Spanish

You’ve got big plans for 2026. But what you do this year could be the difference between a smooth sale and a stressful one. If you’re thinking of selling next spring (the busiest season in real estate), the smartest move you can make is to start prepping now. As Realtor.com says:

“If you’re aiming to sell in 2026, now is the time to start preparing, especially if you want to maximize the spring market’s higher buyer activity.”

Because the reality is, from small repairs to touch-ups and decluttering, the earlier you start, the easier it’ll be when you’re ready to list. And, the better your house will look when it’s time for it to hit the market.

Why Starting Now Matters

Talk to any good agent and they’ll tell you that you can’t afford to skip repairs in today’s market. There are more homes for sale right now than there have been in years. And since buyers have more to choose from, your house is going to need to look its best to stand out and get the attention it deserves.

Now, that doesn’t mean you have to do a full-on renovation. But it does mean you’ll want to tackle some projects before you sell. Your house will sell if it’s prepped right. And you don’t want to be left scrambling in the spring to get the work done.

Because here’s the advantage you have now. If you start this year, you’ll be able to space those upgrades and fixes out however you want to. More time. Less stress. No sense of being rushed or racing the clock.

Whether it’s fixing that leaky faucet, repainting your front door, or finally replacing your roof, you can do it right if you start now. And you have the time to find great contractors without blowing your budget or paying extra for rushed jobs.

Get an Agent’s Advice Early

To figure out what’s worth doing and what’s not in your market, you need to talk to a local agent early. That way you’re not wasting your time or money on something that won’t help your bottom line. As Realtor.com explains:

“Respondents overwhelmingly agree that both buyers and sellers enjoy a smoother, more successful experience when they start early. In fact, a recent survey reveals that, for sellers, bringing a real estate agent into the process sooner can pay off significantly.”

A skilled agent can tell you:

What buyers in your local area are looking for
The repairs or updates you need to do before you list
How to prioritize the projects, if you can’t do them all
Skilled local contractors who can help you get the work done

And having that information up front is a game changer.

To give you a rough idea of what may come up in that conversation, here are the most common updates agents are recommending today, according to research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Just remember, what’s worth updating really depends on the homes you’re competing with in your market. Some areas don’t have a ton of inventory, so little updates may be all you need to tackle. In other areas, there are far more homes for sale, so you may need to do a bit more to make your house stand out.

Your agent will walk you through what you need to do for your specific house and market. And that’s expertise that’ll really pay off.

Bottom Line

If your plan is to sell in 2026, it’s time to get serious. Taking some time to prep means you’ll hit the market confident, ready, and ahead of other sellers who waited until January to get started.

Want to know which projects are getting the biggest return on their investment in our market? Let’s connect so you can head into next spring with a solid game plan.

Buyers • Sellers • October 21, 2025

The $280 Shift in Affordability Every Homebuyer Should Know

by Joe Spanish

If you paused your plans to move because of high rates or prices, it may finally be time to take a second look at your numbers. Affordability is improving in 39 of the top 50 markets, according to First American. And that’s the 5th straight month where buying a home has started to get a little bit easier.

Let’s break this down into real dollars, so you can see the difference this could make for you (and your move).

Monthly Payments Are Coming Down

One of the clearest signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):

This kind of monthly savings adds up fast, and totals nearly $3,400 over the course of a year.

While this isn’t enough to completely change the affordability game overnight, think about it this way. When you’re putting together a homebuying budget, a few hundred dollars could be the difference between being comfortable buying and feeling like money’s a bit tight.

And from a home-search perspective, it could even be enough to change the price point you can look at. According to Redfin:

“A borrower with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $468,000 home, about $22,000 more than in June.”

And that’s a big deal if you haven’t found a home you love in your price range yet. It gives you a little more flexibility to find the one that’s right for you.

Either way, that’s a big win.

What’s Behind the Shift?

Two key factors are working in your favor right now:

Mortgage rates have eased from their high earlier this year
Home price growth is slowing in many markets

Both of those things help your bottom line and give you a bit of breathing room if you’re buying a home. As Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, says:

“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high . . .”

Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to move-up into a bigger house, the shifts happening this year could make your move possible. Connect with a trusted agent or lender to see what your monthly payment would look like at today’s rates.

For you, the savings could be the difference between “not yet” and “let’s go.”

Bottom Line

Affordability is improving in many markets. And that resets the math on your move.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this is your cue to start looking again. Let’s run the local numbers together so you can get a rough estimate of how much more buying power you may have than you did just a few months ago.

Buyers • Housing Market Updates • Sellers • October 20, 2025

2026 Housing Market Outlook

by Joe Spanish

After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.

More Homes Will Sell

With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):

What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.

Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease

The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.

The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):

There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.

Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s.

And remember, there doesn’t have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line.

If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.

Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate

What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.

So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago.

Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below):

This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.

Bottom Line

After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.

So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?

Let’s connect if you want to get ready.